07.12.2018. BTC 3-hour forecast. Machine learning.

by Osiris Team

Posted on Dec. 7, 2018, noon
Time to read: 2 min

Dear colleagues and followers,

The Osiris team remains constantly improving predictive and trading algorithms to deliver the best results achievable. We are using the bearish trend of the recent days as a wonderful opportunity to stress-test our systems and to make them less susceptible to statistical outliers.

After forming a short term support near $3,550, there was a tiny recovery in Bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair traded above the $3,750 level, but upsides were capped near the $3,845 level. Finally, there was a fresh decline and the price traded below the $3,550 and $3,420 support levels. It is now trading well below the $3,750 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. (Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/12/07/bitcoin-price-watch-btc-usd-primed-to-test-3000/)

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) extended a rule change proposal allowing the nation’s first bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), pushing the decision deadline to next year. In a notice posted online, the securities regulator said it was extending the review period for the ETF to Feb. 27, 2019. The proposal was first submitted by money manager VanEck and blockchain startup SolidX, who partnered with the Cboe exchange earlier this year. Under SEC rules, a decision on the proposal cannot be delayed any further, meaning the next notice must either approve or reject the ETF. The decision comes after months of uncertainty as a number of previous ETF proposals were rejected by the SEC, most notably in August when the regulator simultaneously rejected nine proposals submitted by ProShares, GraniteShares and Direxion. The rejections were suspended the next day when the SEC announced it would review all of the proposals. It later reopened a comment period, giving the general public until November 6 to share any new statements in support of or against allowing the ETFs to be approved. (Source: https://www.coindesk.com/sec-again-delays-decision-on-vaneck-solidx-bitcoin-etf)

On Friday (7 December 2018), cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it is considering adding support for up to 31 additional digital assets (XRP, NEO, ADA, XLM, EOS and 26 other cryptocurrencies). The last time that Coinbase announced that it was exploring adding support for several new assets was 15 July 2018, when it said that it was looking at Cardano, Basic Attention Token, Stellar Lumens, Zcash, and 0x. (And before that, on 26 March 2018, Coinbase announced its "intention to support the Ethereum ERC20 technical standard for Coinbase in the coming months.") In the blog post published earlier today, Coinbase says that from the five assets it mentioned on 15 July 2018, it has already added support forthree of these—BAT, ZEC, and ZRX—and that is continuing to "evaluate the others, along with a number of ERC-20 tokens." (Source: https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2018/12/coinbase-considering-adding-xrp-eos-xlm-ada-neo-and-26-other-digital-assets/)

The following is a scheduled notification from the Osiris team. Our models have been working hard and smart on forecasting the market, and here are the most up-to-date predictions for the next 3 hours:

As usual, red, green and blue rectangles demonstrate predicted values of low, high and close, respectively, with corresponding confidence intervals, and the black arrow illustrates our trades.

High: 3654.22
Low: 3250.35
Close: 3409.38

It has been three weeks since the notable Bitcoin Cash hard fork, which has resulted in two rival chains, Bitcoin ABC and Bitcoin SV. The recurrent “hash wars” are going back in forth, with the market still responding to the changes in networks’ relative hash rates. Just recently, Bitcoin ABC has managed to recover its previous advantage and, as for now, is 22 blocks ahead. Despite this, the BAB price has further decreased price to below-100$ levels. As for now, the SV chain has minor advantage in terms of hash power (53%), however the ABC chain is still controlling 73% of the network’s nodes (Sources: https://cash.coin.dance, https://blockchair.com/bitcoin-cash/blocks). The mining profitability of Bitcoin SV is continuously volatile: as for now, it is 4.5% more profitable to mine on the original Bitcoin chain. Bitcoin ABC mining profitability is somewhat stable now being 8.3% higher than that of the Bitcoin chain (a 13% advantage compared to the rival SV chain). Bitcoin ABC miner concentration remains unchanged, slightly above historical levels. As for today, ViaBTC is the apparent leader, having mined 29.86% of recent blocks, followed by BTC.com with slightly above 19%. Bitcoin ABC is continuing to attract occasional mining from Waterhole, Prohashing, DPool, Copernicus, P2Pool, okminer and Multpool, the first four pools now consistently mining at least one block every day (Sources: https://cash.coin.dance/, https://blockchair.com/bitcoin-cash/blocks), contributing to the overall more healthy and diverse environment of the ABC chain, stemming from more attractive mining profitability and more technologically reasonable adjustable blocksize cap solution implemented by the Bitcoin ABC team. Regarding the SV chain, BMG Pool has resumed its activities, having mined over 17% of today’s blocks, probably strengthening the sentiment surrounding BSV. The Osiris is obviously disappointed with such an underwhelming recent performance of the BAB coin, however we are reasonably certain that it can recover back up from the historical lows it is forming now.

Thank you for staying in touch.

BTC 3-hour forecast. Machine learning. by Osiris_Finance on TradingView.com

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