27.11.2018. BTC 3-hour forecast. Machine learning.

by Osiris Team

Posted on Nov. 27, 2018, noon
Time to read: 2 min

Dear colleagues and followers,

The Osiris team remains constantly improving predictive and trading algorithms to deliver the best results achievable. We are using the bearish trend of the recent days as a wonderful opportunity to stress-test our systems and to make them less susceptible to statistical outliers.

Yesterday, we saw a short term upside move above $3,600 and $3,800 in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair traded above the $4,000 barrier as well, but it failed to hold gains. The price was rejected near the $4,100 barrier and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It seems like buyers struggled to gain strength above $4,000, resulting in a bearish reaction. (Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/11/27/bitcoin-price-watch-btc-usd-buyers-facing-uphill-task/)

The most notably pro-bitcoin SEC commissioner, Hester Peirce, appeared on the ‘What Bitcoin Did’ podcast at the weekend. Whilst unwilling to describe a future Bitcoin ETF as inevitable, she did confirm it was definitely possible. Peirce first won the hearts of the crypto-community with her ‘statement of dissent’, following yet another denied Winklevoss ETF application. In the statement made in July, she publicly disagreed with the Commission’s view, that Bitcoin was not “ripe enough, respectable enough, or regulated enough to be worthy of our markets.” (Source: https://bitcoinist.com/sec-peirce-bitcoin-etf-possible/)

A Node.js module called event-stream is used in millions of web applications, including BitPay’s open-source bitcoin wallet — Copay — and this module was reportedly compromised thanks to what can objectively referred to as social engineering, laziness, and incompetence. A user with very little coding activity on GitHub requested publishing rights to the event-stream library from its previous maintainer, Dominic Tarr, who said that he had not maintained the repository in years and gave control to the new user, called right9ctrl. The library event-stream is used in many Node.js applications. According to a complainant on GitHub, the new maintainer right9ctrl either pulled a sneaky move to inject malware or unknowingly had the same effect as if he had, that effect being that it would leak private keys from applications that relied on both the event-stream and copay-dash modules. (Source: https://www.ccn.com/breaking-numerous-bitcoin-wallets-may-have-been-compromised-by-rogue-developer/)

According to an internal document published on Nov. 23, Ethereum developers are quietly discussing an upgrade that has the potential to boost the capabilities of the tech more aggressively in the short-term. The document published on Github details four meetings that took place at the end of October at the Devcon4 conference. The minutes refer to the upgrade “ethereum 1x,” that could be possibly updated in June 2019. (Source: https://usethebitcoin.com/ethereum-developers-planning-upgrade-to-boost-tech-capabilities/)

The following is a scheduled notification from the Osiris team. Our models have been working hard and smart on forecasting the market, and here are the most up-to-date predictions for the next 3 hours:

As usual, red, green and blue rectangles demonstrate predicted values of low, high and close, respectively, with corresponding confidence intervals, and the black arrow illustrates our trades.

High: 3834.70
Low: 3673.95
Close: 3696.28

During the recent days, the “hash wars” surrounding the Bitcoin Cash hard fork have intensified. As predicted by the Osiris Team, the pool Bitcoin.com representing over 40% of the Bitcoin ABC hash rate post-fork has slowed its mining. Miners supporting the SV chain have capitalised on this opportunity and, for a brief period of time, have gained the lead in terms of blocks mined and the network hash rate, SV chain being 32 blocks ahead and controlling 71% of the hash rate for a brief period (Source: https://cash.coin.dance/). However, this advantage was short-lived, as the ABC chain has quickly caught up almost immediately. As for now, the ABC chain is leading once again, with an outstanding 55 block-advantage and over 67% of hash rate (Sources: https://cash.coin.dance/, https://blockchair.com/bitcoin-cash/blocks). Just as the Osiris Team has asserted previously, the SV chain remains much more concentrated in terms of hashing power distribution, with its native SV pool mining over 60% of the recent blocks in the chain. The ABC chain shows a much more balanced picture, with no pool having more than 30% of the mined blocks. In terms of mining profitability, the SV chain is extremely volatile, currently being 28% more profitable to mine on than Bitcoin (before Bitcoin SV price hike, it used to be twice as profitable to mine on the Bitcoin chain). Bitcoin ABC, in turn, manages to secure a robust advantage in terms of mining profitability compared to Bitcoin, fluctuating from 5% to 15% depending on the current BAB price. This remains a major factor in explaining the diverse mix of mining pools currently working on the ABC chain (Source: https://cash.coin.dance/). The Osiris Team, despite acknowledging the unfortunate downward trend of the recent days, reminds that BAB has overall performed comparatively well to the market in general, and, due to fundamental factors outlined above, remains bullish on the coin.

Thank you for staying in touch.

BTC 3-hour forecast. Machine learning. by Osiris_Finance on TradingView.com

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